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Friday, September 12, 2014

Corn Forecast Grows, Prices Shrink

With the USDA Sept. 11 report estimating a record corn supply of 15.5 billion bushels this coming year, the National Corn Growers Association is closely tracking corn prices and fighting back against efforts that will reduce demand for the bountiful supply.

"With a record crop on the way and prices continually sinking, it is critical our federal policymakers do not cut into the ethanol standard, impose undue regulations or go slow on trade agreements," said NCGA President Martin Barbre. "America's farmers are doing our part, working hard and smart on their farms to bring in a good crop. It is critical for Washington to remove obstacles and clear a path now so we can sell America's biggest and most versatile crop at a good and fair price."

USDA estimated a record average national corn yield of 171.7 bushels per acre, 4.3 bushels per acre higher than last month's estimate. Factoring in 83.8 million acres expected to be harvested brings the 2014 crop at 14.3 billion bushels and the overall supply at 15.5 billion bushels.

Kentucky's corn estimate increased 7 percent from the August 1 report to 215 million bushels, with a higher estimated average yield of 148.

Due to the increased production, the average farm price was lowered 30 cents on the low end and 45 cents on the high from its August estimate, to a range of $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel. The last year in which U.S. corn prices averaged near $3.50 per bushel was 2009.

Notably, the report did increase estimated demand from the feed and residual, ethanol and export sectors by 75, 50 and 25 million bushels respectively. Despite increased demand estimates, U.S. corn ending stocks are still projected to top 2 billion bushels.

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